March 19 US Confirmed Coronavirus Cases
Let's start off with the new graph which I think illustrates well the growth in number of cases. Remember, each column represents a doubling of the number of cases per 100,000 people over the column to the left, and the height of the column is the number of states with case rates in that column's range. Blue columns represent Wed Mar 18th, red columns Thu Mar 19th.
You will note that we have added a new column to the right, for 16-32 cases per 100,000. I feel very confident we will add another column tomorrow. And you will note how the curve of red columns is shifted to the right of the previous day's blue columns.
Now let's take a look at the actual states:
And some counties I've been tracking (more than last time):
So, what's changed? If you look at the overall numbers for the country, our number of cases grew by 52% from Wednesday to Thursday. That's far higher than the expected 30% growth day-to-day. When you combine that with slower growth in the numbers of deaths in that same time period (37%), I have to suspect that a big part of the growth in numbers is expanded testing. This is reinforced by the fact that in New York State alone the number of cases grew by 85%! Interestingly, Washington only grew by 16%. As I sit here typing this now I am watching the White House press conference, where I saw Fauci emphasize those communities hardest hit, and again I heard about New York, Washington, and California. Keep in mind that there are NO counties in California with rates as high as those two parishes in Louisiana I'm tracking. In fact, Orleans Parish has a rate 5x that of the worst county in California. So why is no one talking about New Orleans? And Colorado also has a severe outbreak in Eagle County (Vail). The local newspaper in Vail knows this, so why is this not being discussed?
I've added a number of counties to the list, in part because reporting has improved in places like Florida. Most of these should be obvious, but one may stick out: Nolan County, Texas. This tiny county in West Texas had their annual rattlesnake roundup last weekend, which according to Vice News Tonight was one of the largest events in the country NOT CANCELLED. I'm curious to see if they pay a price for that, so I'll be tracking them, though right now there is no case yet (known) in the county.
You will note that we have added a new column to the right, for 16-32 cases per 100,000. I feel very confident we will add another column tomorrow. And you will note how the curve of red columns is shifted to the right of the previous day's blue columns.
Now let's take a look at the actual states:
And some counties I've been tracking (more than last time):
So, what's changed? If you look at the overall numbers for the country, our number of cases grew by 52% from Wednesday to Thursday. That's far higher than the expected 30% growth day-to-day. When you combine that with slower growth in the numbers of deaths in that same time period (37%), I have to suspect that a big part of the growth in numbers is expanded testing. This is reinforced by the fact that in New York State alone the number of cases grew by 85%! Interestingly, Washington only grew by 16%. As I sit here typing this now I am watching the White House press conference, where I saw Fauci emphasize those communities hardest hit, and again I heard about New York, Washington, and California. Keep in mind that there are NO counties in California with rates as high as those two parishes in Louisiana I'm tracking. In fact, Orleans Parish has a rate 5x that of the worst county in California. So why is no one talking about New Orleans? And Colorado also has a severe outbreak in Eagle County (Vail). The local newspaper in Vail knows this, so why is this not being discussed?
I've added a number of counties to the list, in part because reporting has improved in places like Florida. Most of these should be obvious, but one may stick out: Nolan County, Texas. This tiny county in West Texas had their annual rattlesnake roundup last weekend, which according to Vice News Tonight was one of the largest events in the country NOT CANCELLED. I'm curious to see if they pay a price for that, so I'll be tracking them, though right now there is no case yet (known) in the county.
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