March 23 US Confirmed Coronavirus Cases
Monday saw yet another record fall, in this case the record was exceeding 10,000 new cases in one day. As of last night, we had exceeded 10,000 new cases, but it seems to have been revised today as just under 10,000. According to WHO, however, the US had exceeded it earlier, on the 22nd, and by quite a lot. They showed 16,000 new cases (on a day when the standard-bearer for Coronavirus disaster, Italy, only reported a third that many). The timing of various reports means we get all sorts of artifacts that skew day-t-day numbers. Whatever, it's the general trend that matters. Let's call it 10,000 new infections yesterday and move on.
Here's our chart on how infections of grown. As a reminder, each column represents the number of states with infection levels at various rates; each group of columns is a doubling of the columns to the right. This chart shows the change day-to-day over the last week.
The progress of the infection is quite clear. Is is spreading, it is not slowing down.
Now let's look at the numbers on a state-by-state level. I have added two new columns to this chart, which I hope will be useful. These columns are numbers of tests performed and the number of tests performed per 100,000 people.
The first observation I make from this is that Washington seems to be turning a corner, while New Jersey is now 2nd in the country, both on raw numbers of infected population and also in cases per 100,000 residents. Nationwide, the number of cases grew 27.8%. In Washington, the number of cases grew 11.3%, while in New Jersey the number of cases grew by 48.6% (for comparison, the growth in New York state was 37.3% and in Louisiana was 40%, while in California it was 22.1%).
I've made a lot of complaints about how much focus has been given to California (too much) as the "third epicenter" of Covid-19 in the US (it's not). But I do want to point out that California may be doing a good job of slowing the infection rate because they've been on the forefront of restricting people's movement and gathering. Their infection growth rate is 20% lower than the national average, and I will be watching to see if that continues. On the other hand, the growth rate in Texas is even lower, so it's hard to be certain yet. But certainly it looks like Washington may be doing something right.
I've also found a website that shows how testing is going. These numbers are reliant upon reporting on a state-by-state level, and the website I use rates each state's reporting. I have chosen to ignore some states where I think the reporting is essentially useless. Here's the list:
The one new note here is Albany, which is becoming noticeably concerning in its infection rates, and will show up in our top ten list. Speaking of which....
The top ten list of infected communities is:
Here's our chart on how infections of grown. As a reminder, each column represents the number of states with infection levels at various rates; each group of columns is a doubling of the columns to the right. This chart shows the change day-to-day over the last week.
The progress of the infection is quite clear. Is is spreading, it is not slowing down.
Now let's look at the numbers on a state-by-state level. I have added two new columns to this chart, which I hope will be useful. These columns are numbers of tests performed and the number of tests performed per 100,000 people.
The first observation I make from this is that Washington seems to be turning a corner, while New Jersey is now 2nd in the country, both on raw numbers of infected population and also in cases per 100,000 residents. Nationwide, the number of cases grew 27.8%. In Washington, the number of cases grew 11.3%, while in New Jersey the number of cases grew by 48.6% (for comparison, the growth in New York state was 37.3% and in Louisiana was 40%, while in California it was 22.1%).
I've made a lot of complaints about how much focus has been given to California (too much) as the "third epicenter" of Covid-19 in the US (it's not). But I do want to point out that California may be doing a good job of slowing the infection rate because they've been on the forefront of restricting people's movement and gathering. Their infection growth rate is 20% lower than the national average, and I will be watching to see if that continues. On the other hand, the growth rate in Texas is even lower, so it's hard to be certain yet. But certainly it looks like Washington may be doing something right.
I've also found a website that shows how testing is going. These numbers are reliant upon reporting on a state-by-state level, and the website I use rates each state's reporting. I have chosen to ignore some states where I think the reporting is essentially useless. Here's the list:
Things to note:
- What is the "right level" of testing? It's hard to say for certain, though South Korea is held up as a success story. As of March 17th, the rate of testing in South Korea was ~520 per 100,000. In Italy, which is not seen as much of a success story, the numbers are roughly half that. The US does not fare particularly well in this comparison, though it is important to note that experts agree that testing should only be the first step, and that "contact tracing" is an important follow-up.
- Not surprisingly, Washington and New York are testing quite a bit. More surprising is that the state with third-most testing (admittedly a distant third) is New Mexico. Also surprising? California's unimpressive testing, which may make me take back my positive comments about them. And not surprising but certainly depressing is my state, Texas, which has done abysmally in testing.
Finally, let's look at our county listing:
The one new note here is Albany, which is becoming noticeably concerning in its infection rates, and will show up in our top ten list. Speaking of which....
The top ten list of infected communities is:
- New York City and suburbs
- Ski Resorts
- New Orleans
- Dougherty County, GA
- Seattle
- Bartow County, GA
- Albany
- Detroit
- Milwaukee
- Denver
For those wondering, the San Francisco area would be 13th or so.
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