March 24 US Confirmed Coronavirus Cases
New infections appear to have been a bit flat Tuesday; the website I use for my stats only reports a touch over 9,000 new infections. I'm not in any way prepared to see this optimistically. For one thing, the same website has revised Monday's new infections to over 11,000; I suspect this number will be revised upwards, too.
We do have one new threshold we definitely crossed, in a statistic I don't usually talk about much: fatalities. We had our first day of more than 200 fatalities (208) which means fatalities grew by 35% yesterday. But what I really hope will open the eyes of those who say this isn't a big deal is that our first 100+ fatality day was only 2 days prior, on Sunday the 22nd.
So here's the chart of Infection rates over time, and now we've gotten to a full week since I've started the blog:
It's amazing to me how the peak of the curve in one week has gone from 1-2 cases per 100,000 to 4-8 cases per 100,000.
Let's take a look at how the states are doing, first with infection rates:
Then with testing rates:
The story I'm seeing at the state level over the past couple of days is basically that the suburbs aren't safe. NY is clearly the crisis point in our nation (or maybe more accurately, the vanguard). And the states which are climbing up the chart are New Jersey, as I mentioned yesterday, and today Connecticut which saw a 49% increase in its infection rate, moving it from 11th to 8th highest in rate of infections.
Looking at testing, Texas is still awful (but hey, the Governor at least gave a press conference to show off how plastic surgeons are helping--not by treating patients with Covid-19, but by donating their PPE now that no one is getting boob jobs anymore). But I really want to focus on two states: California and Florida. California, which is a (self?) proclaimed center of the epidemic but unlike the other two centers (NY and Washington) isn't actually doing much testing, only performing 1200 tests on Tuesday (Texas performed 3000). Florida, well I'm really worried about Florida. We have a state to which lots of people traveled for Spring Break, and now I'm hearing reports that snowbirds are heading there from New York to try and escape that outbreak. We've seen what's been happening in Louisiana, which is tied to an unrestricted Mardi Gras tourism season one month ago. But at least that happened before the era of "social distancing" in the US. What is Florida's excuse? Too many places in the state refused to restrict Spring Break activities, or if they did refused to enforce those restrictions. And now they aren't testing enough. My cousin pointed me to this map from a smart thermometer company which suggests "abnormal" levels of fevers in most of Florida. Hmmmm...
Finally, we'll take a look at the counties I'm tracking:
We do have one new threshold we definitely crossed, in a statistic I don't usually talk about much: fatalities. We had our first day of more than 200 fatalities (208) which means fatalities grew by 35% yesterday. But what I really hope will open the eyes of those who say this isn't a big deal is that our first 100+ fatality day was only 2 days prior, on Sunday the 22nd.
So here's the chart of Infection rates over time, and now we've gotten to a full week since I've started the blog:
It's amazing to me how the peak of the curve in one week has gone from 1-2 cases per 100,000 to 4-8 cases per 100,000.
Let's take a look at how the states are doing, first with infection rates:
Then with testing rates:
The story I'm seeing at the state level over the past couple of days is basically that the suburbs aren't safe. NY is clearly the crisis point in our nation (or maybe more accurately, the vanguard). And the states which are climbing up the chart are New Jersey, as I mentioned yesterday, and today Connecticut which saw a 49% increase in its infection rate, moving it from 11th to 8th highest in rate of infections.
Looking at testing, Texas is still awful (but hey, the Governor at least gave a press conference to show off how plastic surgeons are helping--not by treating patients with Covid-19, but by donating their PPE now that no one is getting boob jobs anymore). But I really want to focus on two states: California and Florida. California, which is a (self?) proclaimed center of the epidemic but unlike the other two centers (NY and Washington) isn't actually doing much testing, only performing 1200 tests on Tuesday (Texas performed 3000). Florida, well I'm really worried about Florida. We have a state to which lots of people traveled for Spring Break, and now I'm hearing reports that snowbirds are heading there from New York to try and escape that outbreak. We've seen what's been happening in Louisiana, which is tied to an unrestricted Mardi Gras tourism season one month ago. But at least that happened before the era of "social distancing" in the US. What is Florida's excuse? Too many places in the state refused to restrict Spring Break activities, or if they did refused to enforce those restrictions. And now they aren't testing enough. My cousin pointed me to this map from a smart thermometer company which suggests "abnormal" levels of fevers in most of Florida. Hmmmm...
Finally, we'll take a look at the counties I'm tracking:
My observations:
- Gunnison County, CO shot up to 2nd place. This county, home to Crested Butte, is one of the smallest counties I'm tracking, so changes in number of cases will have large effects here.
- I've added a number of New Jersey counties. For those not familiar with New Jersey, it's an unusual place. It is fairly high population, but the population is distributed fairly evenly across most of the state, and it has no major cities, or more accurately its two major cities are in neighboring states (NYC and Philadelphia). Of New Jersey's 21 counties, 13 are officially part of the Census Bureau's New York City Combined Statistical Area, 4 are part of Philadelphia's, and only 4 are "independent". So I've added a number of New Jersey counties that are NYC suburbs to show how the coronavirus infection rate is increasing throughout all the NYC suburban areas.
My list of hardest-hit areas for the 24th is:
- New York City. This is not hyperbole by any means, NYC (the entire metro area) eclipses all other regions right now.
- Ski Resort communites in Colorado and Utah
- New Orleans. This is starting to get bad.
- Dougherty County, GA.
- Seattle.
- Bartow County, GA. I still have no possible explanation as to why these two counties in Georgia have such high rates. A friend of mine wondered if some sort of church spread may have occurred.
- Detroit.
- Albany.
- Boston.
- Nashville.
Denver, Chicago, and Milwaukee would probably be next on the list, Silicon Valley would probably be 14th.
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