Coronavirus tracking and interpretation

Overall, the news is positive. We've had our third consecutive day of growth in new cases of around 9%, and that's really significant. But, I am starting to see signs of areas which aren't doing as well at slowing the growth of new infections, one of which is here in my hometown of Houston. I've been asked to do my thought of the day earlier in the post. I won't do that, but I will tease the thought of the day, and that is: No, no! The herd , not the bird ! Here's a quick look at the list of states: A few states in the upper portion of the chart pop out at me as growing faster than they "should": Rhode Island, Delaware, and Georgia. At the bottom of the chart, Texas, while still low, has been creeping its way up. After floating around 47th-49th place on the state list for the entire time I've been doing the chart, they hit 46th Monday, and 44th Tuesday. Texas has long been pointed to as a potential next hotspot. Looking in on the counti...

The big news for Monday is that, while the percentage growth of new cases did go higher than it was on Sunday, it was still remarkably low at just over 9%. If this holds up it will show that the goal of flattening the curve IS being achieved. The sacrifices we all are making seem to be working. Let's take a look at the states: Notes: While overall the nation is seeing a reduction in growth rates, there are some places where increases are more troubling. Connecticut is one of those states, already hard hit, that now sees their infection rates increase by 21.7%. The rest of the tri-state area, by contrast, saw much lower increases, with New York increasing by 7% and New Jersey by 9.6% Another state with an alarming increase was neighboring Rhode Island, increasing 17.4%. South Dakota had a 20% increase. Here are the counties: Notes: We did not see any increase in the number of counties past 300 cases per 100,000. My county, Harris County TX, saw a surprising i...

The news for Sunday is very good; so good, in fact, that I don't believe it. The number of new cases was a little over 25,600. That represents an increase of only 8.21% over the cumulative total from Saturday, roughly 2/3rds of Saturday's already low increase. And while Saturday's numbers were believable, I don't feel Sunday's are. The number of deaths fell on Sunday as well, from 1322 to 1137. And while this drop is not as dramatic as the drop in the increase of cases, it is still pretty big, and I can't help but notice that the last time we saw a drop in the number of deaths was March 29, the previous Sunday. We'll have to watch Monday and Tuesday's numbers carefully. Because these numbers are suspiciously low, and there were no big movements on the lists of states and counties, I won't have much to say about them. I'll skip the chart, and go straight to the states: There are essentially no changes worth noting here. Here's the counti...

Saturday saw the best news yet in terms of flattening the curve, with new cases representing only 12.4% of the totals from Friday. That's big news, and hopefully is not a function of the weekend. Last weekend we saw numbers dip dramatically on Saturday, and pick up a bit on Sunday, but in general the trend held. This is wonderful news, but in a reminder that we are always looking at the past, I do expect US fatalities to hit 10,000 Sunday. And that is not including the NY Times' claim that US deaths are underreported due to poor protocols and lack of resources. I've decided to alter my chart a bit, to only show the first and last days of the 7-day period of coverage. My hope is that it makes the curve easier to read. The takeaway here is that growth is slowing. In earlier charts we were essentially increasing 4-fold over the chart's 7-day period. Now it is slightly more than 2-fold over the 7 days. Let's take a look at the states: Colorado moved down a few...

First things first, the good news: the curve continues to flatten, with Friday seeing new cases at a rate of 13.2% of the previous day's cumulative total. Let's skip the chart which looks much the same as yesterday's, and go in to the states: And the counties list: Notes: I've added two new counties, at request. El Dorado, CA and Washoe, NV. These were done at the request of someone who was curious about the Lake Tahoe area, given that it's a ski resort. El Dorado has a rather low infection rate, while Washoe's is much higher. But as a pointed out to the person who requested it, I don't believe that Lake Tahoe is the kind of ski resort that attracts nationwide, much less international, tourists. That could explain the low rates in El Dorado. Washoe's higher levels can be explained by the fact that Washoe county is also home to Reno, and the rates there look a lot like those of Las Vegas. Or did, because... Clark county had a 47.2% increase in ...

I took the day off yesterday, in part because I didn't really feel the data told any new stories. Today I can report both good news and bad. The good is that overall, social distancing seems to be working. April 2 saw our lowest rate of growth in new cases, 13.5%, after Wednesday's 13.9%. This means we have been on a general trend of downward rates of new case growth for about two weeks. We have had only two days since Mar 19 where the percentage of new cases (compared to the previous total of cases) has gone up. Here's the chart: If you compare this with previous charts, you will see that the previous charts had a pretty steady 4-fold increase over the seven-day period of each chart. But now, you can see that slowing down. The curve is flattening. Let's take a look at the states: Notes (h ere's where the bad news lies):  Louisiana, already doing so poorly, had a disastrous day, with new cases 42% of Wednesday's previous totals. The entire state is appro...

Tuesday saw a very slight uptick in the rate of new cases, with 25,423 representing a 15.5% increase over the total infected through Monday. The previous day's rate had been 15.3%, but this change is so small that I don't think it should be seen as being very significant of any trend. If there is any trend, it is that we've had our fourth consecutive day of growth trends below 20%; prior to that we had five consecutive days with the rate of new infections over previous total infections and prior to that mostly the rates were in the 30s. We did hit a new milestone Tuesday, and that is in number of deaths, which crossed the 4,000 mark. We surpassed China's (and Iran's) death toll, putting us third in the world for fatalities. On Wednesday we should pass two more milestones: 200,000 confirmed cases (this has actually already happened), and 1,000 deaths in a day. Here's a look at the chart I've been showing every day. As always, this chart shows the number o...